1950-2050 Century of Technologies: Costs, Benefits, Choices

Fromm Institute at University of San Francisco Spring Term 2016 Monday 1 pm-2:40 pm

Rod Handeland rhandeland@gmail.com,  www.rodhandeland.com

 

Course Session Outline Highlights - April 11 - June 2, 2016

 

I. Energy

Summary of Past: Sun source of nearly all energy since birth -4.6 billion years to death in 10 billion years

1. -1,000,000 Warmth from Fire; -500,000 Control of fire, wood for cooking; -10000 Animals for energy, transport

2. -7000 Wind and wave for sails and oars; 1700+ Newton, Galileo, Kepler, Copernicus explain gravity, heavens, physics

3. - 1000 Greek simply machines for leverage, lifting, mechanical advantage; Greek science, Roman engineering

4. 1650-1700 Guericke piston vacuum; Papin piston pump; 1710 Newcomen steam engine to pump water from mines

 

5. 1700's English Industrial Revolution; Inventors, Watt-Boulton-Murdoch; 1776 Smith Capitalism

6. 1830 Natural gas street lights; 1860 Petroleum lighting; 1830 Faraday electric induction; 1843 Morse telegraph

7. 1887 Edison electric lights; 1892 GE; 1893 Tesla AC; 1890+ Electric machinery, appliances, industrial boom

8. 1900+ Petroleum overtakes wood, coal, steam energy for transport, factories, agriculture, construction

 

Technologies since 1950's

1. 1945+ Transport rise with move from farms and cities to suburbs. 1950's Natural gas pipelines for heating

2. 1950's nuclear energy for electricity, 1973+ Oil price rises and shortages spur offshore, arctic discoveries

3. 2000+ Shale oil and gas fracking; internal combustion mpg growth; electric, hydrogen, bio fuels

4. Coal for electricity declines due to pollution, global warming and cost advantage over renewable energy

 

Choices to 2050

1.Silicon technology to reduce work transport: telecommuting, ride sharing; conservation

2. Shift from resource based to digital distribution for communications, entertainment, leisure

3. Options for less energy and/or fossil fuels to support transport, production, construction, communication

4. E commerce potential to reduce shopping, education, leisure time costs and raise satisfaction.

 

II Transportation

Summary of Past: -2,000,000 walking upright to -3200 wheel for energy powered vehicles

1. -3000 Oxen Yoke; -2000 Horseback riding; Hollowed tree rafts to Mediterranean and Gulf sailing ships

2. 1415 Caravals, compass, astrolabe, quadrant; 1700+ Steam engine drains coal mines, then drives industrial revolution

3. 1807 Fulton on Hudson; 1814+ Steamships on Mississippi; 1825 Erie Canal; 1828 Railroads Charleston, Baltimore

4. 1850+ railroad boom to Civil War; 1890+ Electric Urban Transit; 1895-1915 Autos from individual to mass production

 

5. 1903 Wrights prove air potential; 1929-35 Boeing and Douglas perfect air transport; 1934 San Francisco Port strike

6. 1903-30's Petroleum grows to dominate land, sea, air transportation; also surface coatings, plastics, fabrics, cleaners

7. 1920's auto road building, paving; 1930's dawn of freeways; 1939 jet aircraft engine; wartime shipbuilding

 

Policy driven technologies since 1950's

1. 1956+ Interstate Highway Act and construction; Decline of railroad freight and passengers;

2. 1956 Containerization for international shipping; 1959 Commercial jet aircraft

3. Air pollution and 1974 Catalytic Converters; 1986 Lead out of gasoline; 1974, 1979 Oil embargo, price increases.

4. 1980's Plastics to lighten vehicles, higher miles/gallon laws; New expensive and risky offshore and arctic oil drilling

5. 1978 Airline deregulation; 1980 Truck deregulation; 1981 Air Controller Strike; 2000+ Prius hybrid to electric cars

 

Choices to 2050

1. Options for 27-55mpg requirement: digital sensors, monitors, controls, reduced weight. Fossil fuel reduction

2. Safety and security: automation for motor vehicle safety, driverless cars; Airline, port, road threat detection, deterrence

3. Cost effectiveness: reduced fuel and travel; sharing to reduce cars, commutes, traffic, cost; telecommuting

4. Reduce overuse of fossil fuels, minerals, soil, water to preserve environment, eliminate cost and time waste

 

III. Communications

Summary of Past: Apply innovation to better all aspects of life, lower costs, raise living standards

1. From sign to spoken language to -35000 cave paintings; -3500 written Sumerian cuneiform, Egypt hieroglyph

2. -1500 Phoenician alphabet; -100 Paper in China; -27 to 180 Pax Romana law and order, roads, sea lanes

3. 1300 Wooden block moveable type China; 1453 Gutenberg printing press; 1822-31 Babbage Difference Engine;

4. 1831 Faraday electric induction ring; 1843 Morse telegraph and code; 1844 Paper from wood pulp; 1860 Pony Express

 

5. 1876 Bell telephone; 1877 Edison phonograph; 1884 Hertz demonstrates 1865 Maxwell light speed waves

6. 1894 Tesla patents wireless; 1899 Fleming invents vacuum tube; 1901 Marconi demonstrates wireless across Atlantic

7. 1920 Radio broadcasting from 1906 deForest Audion tube; 1918 Fessenden amplification, Armstrong regeneration

8. 1927 Farnsworth invents TV in San Francisco; 1939 Sarnoff announces commercial TV; Armstrong introduces FM

 

Technologies since the 1950's

1947 ENIAC computer from Mauchly Eckert; 1947 transistor from Bell Labs team; 1958 Carlson Xerox

1959 Integrated circuit from Kilby at Texas Instruments, Noyce at Fairchild; 1971 Hoff microprocessor at Intel

1970's PARC Mouse, GUI, laser printer, Ethernet; 1971 email; 1981 IBM PC; 1982 Cell phone; 1980's Cable expansion

1968 ARPANET; 1984+ Cisco and network routers;1986 PC networks; 1994 Internet, WWW, 1998 Google

1990's ecommerce: Amazon, eBay; 1999 dotcom crash over who pays, 2000 telecom streaming crash

2000's social media MySpace, Facebook; 2001 Wikipedia; 2006 Craigslist; 2009 Apple iPhone

 

1960'-90's computers dominate business transactions and controls, expand digitally to customer and supplier with Internet

2000's digital technologies spread to consumer mobility through smartphones, ecommerce and other applications

 

Information Technology (IT) Choices to 2050

Personal use of IT in education, research, business; Leisure It use in entertainment, games, social media, virtual reality

Extent burgeoning capacity and capabilities are used in innovative new ways to save time and money while enhancing life

Equal opportunity of Internet access cost reductions decline as limits of Moore's Law is approached

Security and privacy of stored information in either hardware, cloud or other systems.

 

Approaches to maintain and increase business or personal productivity through IT

Integration and application to everyday life and commerce; Merger of processing, storage and transmission

Everyday life changes: sharing, telecommuting, information delivery and response

 

IV. Food

Summary of Past: Life science technology influence with digital technologies supporting production and distribution

1. -7000 shift from hunter gatherer life relying on sun and fire to Fertile Crescent civilization of settled communities

2. -6000 Wild wheat from Anatolia, animal domestication, -4000 planted fields, irrigation; yeast; -3000 fermentation;

3. -4000 wooden plow, -3000 sugar spices from India; -1500 written records of production, storage, distribution

4. -700 canals, aqueducts; -500 row cultivation; -200 horse collar harness China

 

5. 900 Iron plows, hand tools, horseshoes; 1000 three field crop rotation - fallow, nitrogen fixation

6. 1492 Columbian food and animal exchange between America and Europe; 1700 England Agriculture Revolution

7. 1837 John Deere steel plow, McCormick reaper; 1865 Chicago rise - rail hub, stockyards, refrigeration

8. 1866 Mendel genetics; 1900 Carver - Burbank; 1913 Haber-Bosch ammonia; 1926 Hybrid corn, Pioneer, Henry Wallace

 

Technologies Since the 1950's

1944 Barlaug - Rockefeller Green Revolution Mexico to Asia for Rice Wheat,

1953 Crick, Watson DNA, genes, double helix

1990's Genetic Modification (GMO) of plants and seeds to enhance traits of food, seeds to resist pests, drought, climate

1990's GMO for milk production, lean meat, GMO dominance in seeds of field crops; 1996 Dolly cloned

Life Sciences Food Choices to 2050

Electronic sensors, monitors, controllers for drip water and nutrient delivery, to raise yields, decrease water, nutrients

Recapture or reuse of 95% of plant water intake lost to atmosphere as part of photosynthesis

Expansion of GMO for seed tolerance traits, increased yield productivity, GMO labeling

Tailoring of food, processing and distribution to healthy nutrient needs at reduced costs

 

V. Health

Summary of Past: Dramatic improvements in longevity, prevention, cures but with higher cost from technology

1. -3300 Herbal medicines; -1800; Hammurabi code for surgeons; -1500 Egypt medical text; -450 Hippocrates; 200 Galen

2. 1350+ Plague, pandemics, disease; 1628 William Harvey circulation; 1674 Leeuwenhoek protozoa, bacteria, microscope

3. 1747 Priestly oxygen, other gases, ammonia; 1846 Lister antiseptic surgery; 1840+ Davy, Crawford anesthetic

4. 1870 Pasteur Koch germs-disease, vaccines; 1895 X Rays; 1897 Aspirin; 1905 Vitamins; 1907 Ehrlich chemotherapy

5. 1921 Banning Best diabetes insulin; 1927 Insulin pump; 1928 Fleming Penicillin;

 

Technologies Since the 1950's

1950 Hard contact lenses; 1966 Cataract surgery; Soft contacts; 1983 LASIK surgery

1951 Pincus, Djerassi oral contraceptive birth control pill; 1965 Ultrasound; 1992 In-vitro fertilization

1956 Salk, Sabin polio vaccine, pill, controversy; 1967+ Heart transplant; 1974 Heart Pacemaker; 1988 Stents

1972 Cat Scan; 1977 MRI; 1976 Swanson, Boyer Genentech human insulin, growth hormone, clot busters; cancer

1998 Stem cell therapy; 1999 Human Genome decoding Venter, NIH; 2015 CRISPR gene editing

2011 Affordable Care Act to increase coverage, reduce costs, pre existing conditions; 2015 Hepatitis C and Valeant pricing

Value based and genetic modification Choices to 2050

Use of technology to lower rather than raise health costs

Balance between public and private decisions, payments, treatment options

Costs and justification and effectiveness of end of life and early age care

Individual or society choice on birth control, stem cells, genetic modification

Cost and fairness of drug pricing

 

VI. Costs, Benefits and Choices at Technology Milestones

1. 2016

-Digitally always connected via smartphone facilitates individual choice and assessment of cost, benefits

- Varying values lead to polarization on life sciences individual or global choices as well as costs and benefits

 

2. 1950's -1970's

- Digital business computers, telecommunications, company choices led to benefits and losses

- Manufacturing shifts with containerization, computers and telecom, wage rates, regulations, new plants abroad

- Rise of suburbs, family autos, decline of industrial cities

- Life sciences focused on genetics and hybrid crops. Individual farm choice, productivity benefit, individuality loss

- Nuclear initially all benefit, before accidents, risks, costs escalation, disposal indecision, security threats

 

3. 1865-1914

- Manufacturing dominance; mass production; farmers move to cities for jobs; labor saving home electric appliances

- Industrial, construction, transportation powerhouse, robber barons and inequality based on immigrant labor

- Age of electricity replaced coal and steam, lost transportation to oil after 1900.

- Universal education, rise to largest industrial power.

4. 1820-1860

- Canal, railroad infrastructure built, few winners, much useless duplication, competition

- Eli Whitney fans North South division with cotton gin for South, interchangeable parts for North

- Erie Canal gives New York rather than New Orleans control of vast agriculture productivity of Midwest

 

5. 1700's

- England agriculture and industrial revolutions

- Efficiency of factories created jobs destroys agriculture family life self sufficiency with textile mills, forges, cities

- Urban slums until some relief from regulations, social safety net efforts

 

6. Technology Milestones in other aspects of everyday life

- 1990+ Education: On line courses; Google search; Wikipedia

- 1980+ Manufacturing: Assembly line robots; China; 1960+ Japan consumer electronics, autos

- 1970's Construction - CAD, CAM; 1880's Skyscrapers; 1850's Safety Elevator

- 1900's Entertainment: 1877 phonograph-MP3; 1890's Motion picture camera; 1920 Radio; 1927 Sound films; 1945 TV

 

VII. Convergence and expansion potential- silicon based digital and life science technologies to 2050

 

1. Digital computer and telecommunication IT continuing expansion to nearly all aspects of everyday life

- Business and commerce transaction processing record keeping; Transportation automation and control

- Electronic sensors, monitors and controllers to reduce costs and increase yields in agriculture, factories, transportation

- Artificial Intelligence and robot applications in energy, transportation, production, construction

- Dramatic reduction of natural resources and materials in media, construction, production

- Shift from mass to tailored production, new production methods such as 3D printing, nanotech

- Overlap and merger with life sciences in biometrics in health and IT processing and storage

 

2. Life sciences greatest new potential in health and food, some energy generation

- Continued health advances with pharmaceuticals and other GMO disease treatments, medical devices

- Food emphasis will be on seed GMO characteristics to raise yields and lower costs

- GMO food increase supported by drip and sensors to lower excess water and nutrient use

- GMO potential in animals controlled through regulations and values, GMO food labeling need and cost controversy

- Government laws, regulations, guidelines to promote health and nutrition at more affordable costs

- Progress may result from artificial photosynthesis research and application

- Cloning applications will be complicated by values issues, potential risks, regulations

- Religious, cultural, other values may limit life sciences applications in contraception, in-vitro, abortion, cloning

 

3. Priority of global warming will determine progress in altering fossil fuel input to energy demand

- Cellulose, GMO algae may provide additional fuel without greenhouse gas problems of corn ethanol or fossil fuels

- Solar photovoltaic cost drop along with wind and waves will allow some replacement of coal and gas for electricity

- Potential of electric and hydrogen replacement of oil in transport, rate depends on costs and consumer choices

- Energy job tradeoffs, renewable subsidies and needed infrastructure complicate pace of shift from fossil fuels

- Increased food production from GMO seeds and IT supported infrastructure should reduce carbon emissions.

 

VIII. Class discussion and views of technology choices along with potential costs and benefits to 2050

 

Discussion will include individual views on what could, should and/or is most likely to happen and distinguish between the more complicated life science value and risk issues that are likely to be less of a barrier in digital IT technologies.

 

The Technologies Since the 1950's and Choices to 2050 sections of Class I-V should provide a framework for the discussion and be supplement by any of the syllabus items indicated Class VI and VII.