Dramatic increase in energy per capita over 100 yrs: 100 to >350 TBTU/yr

Shift from coal to petroleum and gas, which are declining

Forecasts of world: more coal, intro of renewables, question of how fast due to cost, can oil supply rise

US Energy Use: Oil >40%; Coal, Gas 22-3%, Nuclear, Renewables 7%: Biomass, Hydro 3%

Solar, Wind, Geo <1%, Could grow fast if costs drop, wind, solar most

US 25% world oil use, >45% gasoline, 70% oil to transport, > 89% transport from oil, cars largest

14MMbpd of 20MMbpd oil, >2/3 imported, $700 billion/yr @ $135/bbl for <$2/bbl

US peak oil 1970, reserves low, costs high vs. ME, Central Asia

With China, India other growth, world peak oil 2000

 

Financial whirlwind of shuffling on Wall St and non-wealth enhancing oil states, $700 billion

Israel & Arab Mideast contrast on wealth creation use of resources, fin threats vs. globalization

 

 

 

1700 England, steam engine as pump for coal, move energy, select factory locations

Murdoch of Bolton & Watt steam, Cornwall, introduced coal gas for lighting

Electricity: Franklin, Volta battery, Faraday electromagnetic induction, Davenport motor, Morse

 

 

1859 Drake oil well Titusville, Oil City, lubrication, 40 yrs kerosene for oil

1879 Edison, Swan, Brush electric light, 1881 Edison Pearl St NY

 

Tesla, Westinghouse, AC vs. DC, Niagara, Chicago 1893 Fair

 

Electricity AC expansion throughout US, Insull downfall, Rural electrification; motors, appliances

US energy flows: almost all oil, gas, electricity. Huge losses, conservation efficiency potentials

 

Coal mine steam on rails, 1771 Cugnot, 1805 Evans dredge, 1807 Fulton steamboat, 1828 Jedlick

Dominance of coal – steam on rail from 1830, unifies north, all lines EW but IC

Mass electric transit: 1888 Sprague, 1904 NY BMT, 1905 PacElec RR LA Red Cars, US Interurban

Internal combustion Europe: 1876 Otto, 1884 Daimler Benz, 1886 Diesel

 

US 1895 Selden patent, Duryea, 1903 Ford, 1908 Model T, 1911 Edison-Ford Electric plan

 

1901 Spindletop, 1911 Standard Oil breakup, Churchill coal to Persia oil for UK fleet ensured oil dominance

Sloan and DuPont at GM Ike cross country to boost road need for autos post WWI explosion

 

Diesel to trains and aviation fuel for growing air transport by 1930’s, dominance of ME oil after WW II

 

Rise of nationalism, independent colonies, decline of oil company concessions 1950-70’s

 

Cost spreads between ME and other petroleum reserves, OPEC in 1970’s, oil traders, price volatility

CA air quality lead 1975 catalytic converters, 1990’s electric cars from GM, Ford, folded into hydrogen hope

 

Oil price escalation as Prius introduced, revival of electric interest in cars as hydrogen hopes recede

Plug in hybrids, mass market by 2010’s: Tesla, Think, others niche markets; Prius, Chevy Volt mass market

 

Potential of $.75 gallon equivalent electric cost, limited new infrastructure of plug-ins, grid supply and use

 

Complications and costs of batteries, limits to range, battery exchange stations, lease financing

 

 

Fuel sources to add electricity to gasoline in cars: Cauldron of technologies, costs, emissions

Electricity fuel forecasts reflect current costs and availability rather than emissions

Forecasts for electricity fuels could alter with technology breakthroughs, pricing policies, regulations

 

Carbon dioxide is minor, but important greenhouse gas emission

Rise in greenhouse gas emissions related to population, industrialization, tropical deforestation rise

Petroleum largest contributor to emissions, but internal combustion engines complicate control

Carbon emissions vary by fuel source and end use

Renewable energy resources are very small part of current electricity fuels

Hydro low cost but limited, wind competitive but inconsistent, solar improving

Enormous recent investment in photovoltaic and other renewable energy technologies

Wind, solar, geo, wave potentials vary with location

 

 

Coal and petroleum reserves vary among developing, emerging, developed countries

U.S. coal production mostly in West, primarily Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Coal importance related to China and India energy supply and expansion plans

 

Powder River Basin coal $5/ton at strip mine face, $25-30/ton at power plant after rail transport

Clean coal, gasification, carbon sequestering & storage (CCS) emission potential, but costs high

Symbiotic potential of coal power plants and algae farms

 

Algae, genetic modification, technology potential and links between food and energy